How the score is built
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 0.0654 | 162 |
|---|
| Strikeout | 15.4% | 20.9% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 11.5% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 0.1215 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 0.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0504 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0053 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.8% | 2.9% |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
