MLB · Third Baseman · Washington Nationals
5' 9", 171 lbs · age 25 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 11.5% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 0.0758 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | WSH | 76 | 188 | 23 | 46 | 3 | 18 | 21 | 29 | .245 |
| 2025 | NYY | 29 | 56 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | .161 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | WSH | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.00 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| Strikeout | 13.4% | 14.3% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 15.7% | 14.9% | 14.0% | 0.1305 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0512 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0057 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 0.0449 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .298 | .308 | .303 | 0.3081 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 217 | .298 | .308 | 101 |
| 2025 | batter | 64 | .239 | .293 | 98 |
