MLB · Relief Pitcher · Boston Red Sox
6' 1", 167 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 0.0721 | 162 |
| Strikeout | 28.3% | 26.9% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
| Single | 7.2% | 12.4% | 14.0% | 0.1085 | 510 |
| Double | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 0.0489 | 1194 |
| Triple | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0055 | 4400 |
| Home run | 3.0% | 2.8% |
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BOS | 28 | 3 | 42.3 | 22 | 13 | 19 | 47 | 2.76 | 0.97 |
| 2025 | BOS | 2 | 0 | 4.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6.75 | 2.00 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| 2.9% |
| 0.0574 |
| 647 |
| Adjusted wOBA | .243 | .292 | .315 | 0.2924 |
|---|
