MLB · Starting Pitcher · Atlanta Braves
6' 2", 210 lbs · age 24 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 21.4% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 0.0892 | 162 |
| Strikeout | 16.1% | 20.0% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
| Single | 17.9% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 0.1253 | 510 |
| Double | 0.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 0.0492 | 1194 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 56 | .413 | .330 | 92 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 228 | .274 | .293 | 102 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 36 | .497 | .322 | 92 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ATL | 3 | 2 | 10.7 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8.44 | 2.16 |
| 2025 | ATL | 10 | 9 | 56.3 | 45 | 18 | 22 | 55 | 2.88 | 1.19 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0053 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.0613 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .413 | .330 | .315 | 0.3302 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| ATL |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 7.0 |
| 9 |
| 13 |
| 8 |
| 3 |
| 16.71 |
| 2.43 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
