MLB · Relief Pitcher · Kansas City Royals
6' 1", 185 lbs · age 28 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 16.1% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 0.0791 | 162 |
| Strikeout | 10.7% | 18.0% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
| Single | 21.4% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 0.1293 | 510 |
| Double | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0521 | 1194 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 56 | .502 | .327 | 93 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 372 | .347 | .306 | 98 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 650 | .337 | .306 | 97 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | KC | 3 | 1 | 9.3 | 19 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 21.21 | 3.00 |
| 2025 | ATH | 32 | 8 | 84.7 | 96 | 48 | 26 | 66 | 5.10 | 1.44 |
| Triple | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0056 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.0606 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .502 | .327 | .315 | 0.3267 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| OAK |
| 35 |
| 24 |
| 151.3 |
| 165 |
| 77 |
| 44 |
| 126 |
| 4.58 |
| 1.38 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
