MLB · Right Fielder · Philadelphia Phillies
5' 9", 193 lbs · age 27 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 17.8% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 0.0781 | 145 |
| Strikeout | 31.1% | 26.6% | 22.9% | 0.0000 | 54 |
| Single | 13.3% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.1224 | 265 |
| Double | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0521 | 1914 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | PHI | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | .143 |
| 2025 | MIL | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .000 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0049 | 499 |
|---|
| Home run | 0.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 0.0465 | 228 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .267 | .304 | .296 | 0.3040 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| TOR |
| 28 |
| 37 |
| 7 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 8 |
| 14 |
| .189 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
