MLB · Third Baseman · Tampa Bay Rays
5' 10", 207 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 5.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 0.0575 | 136 |
| Strikeout | 28.2% | 25.4% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 50 |
| Single | 10.3% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 0.1196 | 264 |
| Double | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0527 | 3226 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | batter | 39 | .189 | .280 | 94 |
| 2024 | batter | 103 | .264 | .293 | 98 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TB | 9 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | .091 |
| 2025 | MIL | 14 | 36 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 11 | .167 |
| Triple |
|---|
| 0.0% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.0041 |
| 383 |
| Home run | 0.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 0.0464 | 179 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .189 | .280 | .296 | 0.2802 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| MIL |
| 41 |
| 95 |
| 11 |
| 21 |
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 6 |
| 40 |
| .221 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
