MLB · Relief Pitcher · Atlanta Braves
6' 1", 170 lbs · age 24 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 0.0503 | 181 |
| Strikeout | 15.3% | 19.3% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 86 |
| Single | 20.4% | 15.6% | 14.1% | 0.1367 | 467 |
| Double | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 0.0537 | 1332 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | pitcher | 157 | .431 | .320 | 93 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 263 | .347 | .311 | 96 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ATL | 3 | 0 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5.40 | 1.40 |
| 2025 | COL | 17 | 1 | 34.7 | 52 | 28 | 6 | 24 | 7.27 | 1.67 |
| Triple |
|---|
| 0.0% |
| 0.2% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.0038 |
| 922 |
| Home run | 7.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.0751 | 549 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .431 | .320 | .313 | 0.3196 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| COL |
| 35 |
| 1 |
| 59.7 |
| 72 |
| 45 |
| 22 |
| 41 |
| 6.79 |
| 1.58 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
