MLB · Starting Pitcher · Atlanta Braves
6' 1", 190 lbs · age 22 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 0.0684 | 162 |
| Strikeout | 20.7% | 22.2% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
| Single | 13.8% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.1222 | 510 |
| Double | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0513 | 1194 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0053 | 4400 |
| Home run | 3.4% | 2.9% |
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ATL | 2 | 1 | 5.7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3.18 | 1.24 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| 2.9% |
| 0.0582 |
| 647 |
| Adjusted wOBA | .305 | .305 | .315 | 0.3053 |
|---|
