MLB · Third Baseman · Boston Red Sox
6' 2", 208 lbs · age 28 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 0.0695 | 136 |
| Strikeout | 25.3% | 23.4% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 50 |
| Single | 18.1% | 15.1% | 14.1% | 0.1325 | 264 |
| Double | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 0.0531 | 3226 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | batter | 83 | .308 | .300 | 100 |
| 2024 | batter | 123 | .250 | .298 | 100 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BOS | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .000 |
| 2025 | ATH | 32 | 73 | 11 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 21 | .274 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0038 | 383 |
|---|
| Home run | 0.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 0.0406 | 179 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .308 | .300 | .296 | 0.2996 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| OAK |
| 36 |
| 103 |
| 15 |
| 15 |
| 3 |
| 12 |
| 17 |
| 25 |
| .146 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
