MLB · Relief Pitcher · San Francisco Giants
6' 4", 220 lbs · age 32 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 0.0592 | 181 |
| Strikeout | 17.9% | 19.6% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 86 |
| Single | 16.8% | 15.1% | 14.1% | 0.1324 | 467 |
| Double | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 0.0530 | 1332 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | pitcher | 340 | .319 | .300 | 100 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 200 | .308 | .291 | 102 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| 2025 | SF | 54 | 0 | 81.0 | 83 | 36 | 25 | 61 | 4.00 | 1.33 |
| Triple |
|---|
| 1.5% |
| 0.6% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.0095 |
| 922 |
| Home run | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 0.0461 | 549 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .319 | .300 | .313 | 0.3001 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| SF |
| 27 |
| 2 |
| 48.7 |
| 47 |
| 17 |
| 11 |
| 37 |
| 3.14 |
| 1.19 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
