MLB · Starting Pitcher · Kansas City Royals
6' 1", 210 lbs · age 26 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 0.0687 | 181 |
| Strikeout | 22.8% | 23.7% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 86 |
| Single | 12.2% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 0.1162 | 467 |
| Double | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0522 | 1332 |
| Triple | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0042 | 922 |
| Home run | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | KC | 1 | 1 | 4.0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9.00 | 1.75 |
| 2025 | KC | 19 | 15 | 76.3 | 61 | 31 | 35 | 73 | 3.66 | 1.26 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| 2.7% |
| 0.0505 |
| 549 |
| Adjusted wOBA | .288 | .292 | .313 | 0.2918 |
|---|
