MLB · Second Baseman · Boston Red Sox
6' 3", 191 lbs · age 24 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 12.5% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 0.0808 | 136 |
| Strikeout | 27.4% | 25.9% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 50 |
| Single | 13.3% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 0.1210 | 264 |
| Double | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0522 | 3226 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0030 | 383 |
| Home run | 2.3% | 2.5% |
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BOS | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 |
| 2025 | BOS | 67 | 229 | 24 | 51 | 6 | 21 | 29 | 72 | .223 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| 2.7% |
| 0.0498 |
| 179 |
| Adjusted wOBA | .297 | .307 | .296 | 0.3068 |
|---|
