MLB · Starting Pitcher · Chicago White Sox
6' 3", 240 lbs · age 26 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 20.8% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 0.0847 | 162 |
| Strikeout | 22.9% | 22.6% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
| Single | 14.6% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 0.1228 | 510 |
| Double | 8.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 0.0535 | 1194 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 48 | .417 | .323 | 94 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 613 | .294 | .290 | 103 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CHW | 3 | 3 | 8.3 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 10.80 | 2.52 |
| 2025 | CHW | 29 | 29 | 146.3 | 117 | 62 | 58 | 145 | 3.81 | 1.20 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0053 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.0569 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .417 | .323 | .315 | 0.3231 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| MIL |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 1.0 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 9.00 |
| 2.00 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
