MLB · Center Fielder · New York Mets
5' 10", 160 lbs · age 21 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 0.0692 | 137 |
| Strikeout | 26.9% | 25.0% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
| Single | 16.6% | 15.3% | 14.0% | 0.1348 | 246 |
| Double | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0516 | 3972 |
| Triple | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0055 | 922 |
| Home run | 2.8% | 2.8% |
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | NYM | 64 | 227 | 27 | 61 | 7 | 25 | 24 | 68 | .269 |
| 2024 | NYM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| 2.9% |
| 0.0569 |
| 232 |
| Adjusted wOBA | .330 | .318 | .303 | 0.3180 |
|---|
