MLB · Starting Pitcher · New York Mets
6' 1", 180 lbs · age 23 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 14.9% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 0.0748 | 162 |
| Strikeout | 14.9% | 19.3% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
| Single | 14.9% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 0.1233 | 510 |
| Double | 0.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 0.0496 | 1194 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 47 | .276 | .309 | 99 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 87 | .374 | .308 | 97 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | NYM | 3 | 0 | 10.0 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 3.60 | 1.50 |
| 2025 | NYM | 5 | 5 | 18.7 | 24 | 16 | 9 | 22 | 7.71 | 1.77 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0053 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.0564 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .276 | .309 | .315 | 0.3094 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
