MLB · Starting Pitcher · Detroit Tigers
6' 5", 240 lbs · age 43 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 0.0586 | 181 |
| Strikeout | 20.8% | 21.8% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 86 |
| Single | 14.7% | 14.3% | 14.1% | 0.1251 | 467 |
| Double | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 0.0611 | 1332 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | pitcher | 658 | .318 | .297 | 101 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 396 | .334 | .307 | 97 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | DET | 1 | 1 | 3.7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12.27 | 2.18 |
| 2025 | SF | 29 | 29 | 152.0 | 155 | 65 | 52 | 137 | 3.85 | 1.36 |
| Triple |
|---|
| 0.2% |
| 0.2% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.0034 |
| 922 |
| Home run | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 0.0485 | 549 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .318 | .297 | .313 | 0.2967 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| HOU |
| 17 |
| 17 |
| 90.3 |
| 98 |
| 55 |
| 27 |
| 74 |
| 5.48 |
| 1.38 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
