Cross-venue locks (PM ↔ Kalshi) · hedge · 2026-07-29
both sides bought for 93.0c/$1 of payout net of Kalshi fee — ⚠️ rule risk: venues may differ on postponement/void handling; verify both rulebooks
The bar is the edge: the gap between what the model thought this outcome was worth and what the exchange was asking for it. A ticket is only issued when that gap clears 5¢ after costs — the exchange spread, and a 1¢ haircut on Polymarket quotes because roughly 30% of them are already stale by the time we could act on one.
Model
—
Paid
93¢
Edge
+7.0¢
Stake
18.6u
| Leg | Model | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PM YES New York M @ 0.42Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets | — | 42¢ | — | pending |
| Kalshi NO New York M @ 0.48Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets | — | 48¢ | — | pending |
A parlay’s price is the product of its legs, and so is its probability — on an exchange there is no parlay juice to beat, so the expected value is identical to betting the legs separately with the variance compounded. These exist to accrue a multi-leg record honestly, not because they should win.
Not the same question as “did it win”. A bet at 38% loses nearly two times in three when it is priced perfectly, so a loss is not evidence of a mistake and a win is not evidence of skill. The closing price is the better judge — it is the market’s final answer, and it is calibrated almost perfectly.
No closing price yet.
The verdict on this ticket is not “did it win” — it is whether the market moved toward the price we paid by the time betting closed. That answer arrives at first pitch.
Still open. Settles after the game resolves.
Mechanical, no model. Restricted to game-winner contracts so resolution rules are near-identical — but postponement/void handling still differs by venue, so every ticket carries rule risk until both rulebooks are read. No verified evidence establishes a safe gap size.
tier: candidate
