MLB · Right Fielder · Kansas City Royals
6' 0", 195 lbs · age 37 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 0.0644 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | KC | 48 | 123 | 13 | 32 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 35 | .260 |
| 2025 | NYM | 98 | 293 | 37 | 79 | 9 | 34 | 22 | 68 | .270 |
| Strikeout | 25.5% | 23.4% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 19.7% | 16.1% | 14.0% | 0.1413 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0510 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0047 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 0.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 0.0442 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .284 | .306 | .303 | 0.3056 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 137 | .284 | .306 | 100 |
| 2025 | batter | 328 | .323 | .316 | 106 |
| 2024 | batter | 366 | .311 | .310 | 104 |
| 2024 |
| NYM |
| 94 |
| 335 |
| 46 |
| 90 |
| 7 |
| 40 |
| 27 |
| 81 |
| .269 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
