MLB · Designated Hitter · Texas Rangers
6' 1", 220 lbs · age 34 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 12.4% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 0.0812 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TEX | 92 | 266 | 40 | 65 | 17 | 36 | 36 | 70 | .244 |
| 2025 | TEX | 96 | 265 | 28 | 48 | 9 | 26 | 34 | 65 | .181 |
| Strikeout | 22.8% | 22.3% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 12.1% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 0.1135 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0504 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0066 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.0904 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .349 | .342 | .303 | 0.3421 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 307 | .349 | .342 | 112 |
| 2025 | batter | 305 | .274 | .297 | 99 |
| 2024 | batter | 441 | .387 | .368 | 124 |
| 2024 |
| ARI |
| 132 |
| 367 |
| 62 |
| 101 |
| 23 |
| 64 |
| 55 |
| 105 |
| .275 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
