MLB · First Baseman · Boston Red Sox
6' 0", 240 lbs · age 34 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 13.5% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 0.0906 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BOS | 95 | 335 | 52 | 98 | 22 | 66 | 38 | 97 | .293 |
| 2025 | STL | 135 | 490 | 70 | 126 | 20 | 80 | 44 | 142 | .257 |
| Strikeout | 24.7% | 23.4% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 14.3% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 0.1245 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0519 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0061 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.0954 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .397 | .369 | .303 | 0.3686 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 392 | .397 | .369 | 121 |
| 2025 | batter | 560 | .341 | .327 | 109 |
| 2024 | batter | 356 | .367 | .347 | 117 |
| 2024 |
| STL |
| 84 |
| 301 |
| 48 |
| 79 |
| 15 |
| 36 |
| 45 |
| 96 |
| .262 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
