MLB · Designated Hitter · Atlanta Braves
5' 11", 205 lbs · age 35 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 0.0553 | 136 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ATL | 12 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | .267 |
| 2025 | COL | 97 | 277 | 24 | 63 | 8 | 31 | 17 | 66 | .227 |
| Strikeout | 22.0% | 21.3% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 13.7% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 0.1225 | 264 |
|---|
| Double | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 0.0530 | 3226 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0029 | 383 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.0542 | 179 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .280 | .288 | .296 | 0.2879 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | batter | 300 | .280 | .288 | 96 |
| 2024 | batter | 241 | .282 | .287 | 96 |
| 2024 |
| MIN |
| 107 |
| 215 |
| 26 |
| 46 |
| 5 |
| 25 |
| 19 |
| 49 |
| .214 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
