MLB · Relief Pitcher · Toronto Blue Jays
6' 4", 219 lbs · age 35 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 0.0619 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TOR | 17 | 0 | 17.7 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 2.04 | 1.13 |
| 2025 | ARI | 9 | 0 | 9.3 | 23 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 13.50 | 2.79 |
| Strikeout | 23.2% | 22.3% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 17.4% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 0.1259 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0516 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0052 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 0.0551 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .286 | .300 | .315 | 0.2997 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 69 | .286 | .300 | 102 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 57 | .562 | .318 | 94 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 236 | .264 | .274 | 109 |
| 2024 |
| ARI |
| 74 |
| 2 |
| 59.3 |
| 52 |
| 26 |
| 18 |
| 53 |
| 3.94 |
| 1.18 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
