MLB · Starting Pitcher · Philadelphia Phillies
6' 2", 200 lbs · age 33 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 0.0536 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | PHI | 21 | 21 | 108.3 | 121 | 70 | 36 | 112 | 5.82 | 1.45 |
| 2025 | PHI | 17 | 17 | 94.3 | 99 | 63 | 28 | 97 | 6.01 | 1.35 |
| Strikeout | 23.8% | 23.6% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 14.9% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 0.1258 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 0.0540 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0057 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.0759 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .359 | .315 | .315 | 0.3150 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 471 | .359 | .315 | 97 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 403 | .344 | .306 | 98 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 820 | .308 | .290 | 103 |
| 2024 |
| PHI |
| 33 |
| 33 |
| 199.3 |
| 189 |
| 79 |
| 50 |
| 197 |
| 3.57 |
| 1.20 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
