MLB · Designated Hitter · Philadelphia Phillies
5' 11", 229 lbs · age 33 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 14.5% | 14.1% | 9.8% | 0.0971 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | PHI | 100 | 375 | 60 | 93 | 33 | 61 | 62 | 154 | .248 |
| 2025 | PHI | 162 | 604 | 111 | 145 | 56 | 132 | 108 | 197 | .240 |
| Strikeout | 35.0% | 32.9% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 10.9% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 0.1059 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 0.0494 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0048 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 7.5% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 0.1251 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .382 | .382 | .303 | 0.3823 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 440 | .382 | .382 | 125 |
| 2025 | batter | 718 | .388 | .394 | 132 |
| 2024 | batter | 689 | .362 | .363 | 122 |
| 2024 |
| PHI |
| 150 |
| 573 |
| 110 |
| 142 |
| 38 |
| 104 |
| 106 |
| 197 |
| .248 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
