MLB · Shortstop · Atlanta Braves
6' 0", 200 lbs · age 31 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 0.0558 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ATL | 64 | 129 | 28 | 31 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 41 | .240 |
| 2025 | BAL | 43 | 79 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 30 | .177 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ATL | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| 2025 | BAL | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 45.00 | 7.00 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| Strikeout | 29.9% | 27.6% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 15.3% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 0.1264 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0515 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0047 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0586 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .288 | .297 | .303 | 0.2970 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 137 | .288 | .297 | 97 |
| 2025 | batter | 83 | .213 | .274 | 92 |
| 2024 | batter | 206 | .283 | .278 | 93 |
| 2024 |
| BAL |
| 68 |
| 192 |
| 30 |
| 44 |
| 5 |
| 18 |
| 10 |
| 48 |
| .229 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
