MLB · Starting Pitcher · Atlanta Braves
6' 0", 226 lbs · age 30 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 0.0721 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ATL | 20 | 19 | 97.3 | 89 | 41 | 43 | 83 | 3.79 | 1.36 |
| 2025 | ATL | 22 | 21 | 115.0 | 100 | 51 | 54 | 123 | 3.99 | 1.34 |
| Strikeout | 19.7% | 20.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 14.3% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 0.1225 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 0.0481 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0051 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.0614 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .314 | .309 | .315 | 0.3092 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 421 | .314 | .309 | 99 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 491 | .313 | .305 | 98 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 280 | .285 | .289 | 103 |
| 2024 |
| ATL |
| 26 |
| 7 |
| 68.3 |
| 66 |
| 27 |
| 15 |
| 70 |
| 3.56 |
| 1.19 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
