MLB · Starting Pitcher · Kansas City Royals
6' 4", 225 lbs · age 36 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 0.0586 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | KC | 21 | 21 | 117.7 | 123 | 57 | 38 | 94 | 4.36 | 1.37 |
| 2025 | KC | 26 | 26 | 145.3 | 133 | 67 | 55 | 125 | 4.15 | 1.29 |
| Strikeout | 19.0% | 19.8% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 15.1% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 0.1264 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 0.0571 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0064 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0574 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .339 | .306 | .315 | 0.3060 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 496 | .339 | .306 | 100 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 607 | .326 | .306 | 98 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 833 | .275 | .276 | 108 |
| 2024 |
| KC |
| 33 |
| 33 |
| 206.7 |
| 177 |
| 69 |
| 48 |
| 181 |
| 3.00 |
| 1.09 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
