MLB · First Baseman · Toronto Blue Jays
6' 0", 245 lbs · age 27 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 0.0732 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TOR | 99 | 367 | 53 | 96 | 6 | 42 | 44 | 55 | .262 |
| 2025 | TOR | 156 | 589 | 96 | 172 | 23 | 84 | 81 | 94 | .292 |
| Strikeout | 13.2% | 13.6% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 17.8% | 16.4% | 14.0% | 0.1441 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0511 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0039 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 0.0415 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .304 | .314 | .303 | 0.3139 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 416 | .304 | .314 | 103 |
| 2025 | batter | 672 | .363 | .348 | 116 |
| 2024 | batter | 685 | .395 | .360 | 121 |
| 2024 |
| TOR |
| 159 |
| 616 |
| 98 |
| 199 |
| 30 |
| 103 |
| 72 |
| 96 |
| .323 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
