MLB · First Baseman · Seattle Mariners
5' 10", 235 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 0.0599 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SEA | 97 | 379 | 40 | 98 | 8 | 37 | 32 | 50 | .259 |
| 2025 | SEA | 147 | 543 | 81 | 160 | 20 | 92 | 48 | 83 | .295 |
| Strikeout | 12.1% | 13.0% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 18.6% | 16.9% | 14.0% | 0.1487 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 0.0503 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0039 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 0.0465 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .298 | .309 | .303 | 0.3093 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 414 | .298 | .309 | 101 |
| 2025 | batter | 596 | .348 | .332 | 111 |
| 2024 | batter | 625 | .329 | .325 | 109 |
| 2024 |
| CLE |
| 150 |
| 556 |
| 82 |
| 135 |
| 31 |
| 106 |
| 57 |
| 102 |
| .243 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
