MLB · First Baseman · Cleveland Guardians
6' 3", 241 lbs · age 33 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 16.1% | 14.5% | 9.8% | 0.1003 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CLE | 82 | 235 | 30 | 41 | 11 | 33 | 43 | 92 | .174 |
| 2025 | MIL | 90 | 279 | 30 | 66 | 12 | 43 | 38 | 91 | .237 |
| Strikeout | 32.3% | 30.0% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 6.0% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 0.0876 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0518 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0042 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 0.0692 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .298 | .313 | .303 | 0.3131 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 285 | .298 | .313 | 103 |
| 2025 | batter | 326 | .322 | .324 | 109 |
| 2024 | batter | 514 | .311 | .325 | 109 |
| 2024 |
| MIL |
| 131 |
| 449 |
| 59 |
| 96 |
| 26 |
| 82 |
| 53 |
| 149 |
| .214 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
