MLB · Center Fielder · Tampa Bay Rays
5' 7", 175 lbs · age 31 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.3% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 0.0713 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TB | 89 | 304 | 38 | 62 | 12 | 31 | 29 | 72 | .204 |
| 2025 | NYM | 133 | 435 | 58 | 94 | 17 | 59 | 50 | 120 | .216 |
| Strikeout | 21.1% | 20.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 12.3% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 0.1145 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 1.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 0.0492 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0064 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 0.0661 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .281 | .308 | .303 | 0.3075 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 341 | .281 | .308 | 101 |
| 2025 | batter | 495 | .299 | .302 | 101 |
| 2024 | batter | 492 | .308 | .311 | 105 |
| 2024 |
| BAL |
| 147 |
| 444 |
| 69 |
| 104 |
| 18 |
| 54 |
| 41 |
| 98 |
| .234 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
