MLB · Designated Hitter · Houston Astros
6' 4", 237 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 12.7% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 0.0867 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | HOU | 103 | 376 | 71 | 123 | 34 | 77 | 67 | 77 | .327 |
| 2025 | HOU | 48 | 165 | 17 | 45 | 6 | 27 | 28 | 33 | .273 |
| Strikeout | 17.6% | 17.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 15.9% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 0.1331 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0520 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0039 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 7.9% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 0.1311 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .443 | .407 | .303 | 0.4068 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 433 | .443 | .407 | 133 |
| 2025 | batter | 194 | .336 | .321 | 107 |
| 2024 | batter | 619 | .398 | .368 | 124 |
| 2024 |
| HOU |
| 147 |
| 552 |
| 88 |
| 170 |
| 35 |
| 86 |
| 69 |
| 95 |
| .308 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
