MLB · Center Fielder · Cincinnati Reds
5' 8", 180 lbs · age 30 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 0.0746 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CIN | 62 | 196 | 19 | 34 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 52 | .173 |
| 2025 | CIN | 152 | 579 | 82 | 151 | 14 | 53 | 81 | 115 | .261 |
| Strikeout | 23.5% | 23.0% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 10.9% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 0.1098 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0505 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0057 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 0.0443 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .238 | .285 | .303 | 0.2848 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 221 | .238 | .285 | 93 |
| 2025 | batter | 681 | .330 | .336 | 113 |
| 2024 | batter | 340 | .301 | .319 | 107 |
| 2024 |
| CIN |
| 85 |
| 297 |
| 35 |
| 67 |
| 13 |
| 55 |
| 26 |
| 52 |
| .226 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
