MLB · Shortstop · Toronto Blue Jays
5' 11", 161 lbs · age 27 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 5.8% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 0.0507 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TOR | 98 | 304 | 25 | 68 | 7 | 39 | 11 | 63 | .224 |
| 2025 | TOR | 101 | 329 | 39 | 69 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 66 | .210 |
| Strikeout | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 13.8% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.1217 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0519 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0052 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 0.0504 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .266 | .280 | .303 | 0.2798 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 327 | .266 | .280 | 92 |
| 2025 | batter | 368 | .267 | .289 | 97 |
| 2024 | batter | 629 | .279 | .289 | 97 |
| 2024 |
| CLE |
| 150 |
| 575 |
| 63 |
| 144 |
| 9 |
| 62 |
| 26 |
| 96 |
| .250 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
