MLB · Starting Pitcher · Texas Rangers
6' 2", 193 lbs · age 27 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 0.0661 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TEX | 22 | 22 | 115.7 | 107 | 62 | 44 | 127 | 4.82 | 1.31 |
| 2025 | WSH | 30 | 30 | 159.7 | 152 | 74 | 64 | 185 | 4.17 | 1.35 |
| Strikeout | 25.6% | 25.1% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 13.5% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 0.1206 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 0.0533 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0057 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.0555 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .311 | .301 | .315 | 0.3012 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 496 | .311 | .301 | 101 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 677 | .316 | .301 | 99 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 729 | .322 | .308 | 97 |
| 2024 |
| WSH |
| 32 |
| 32 |
| 166.3 |
| 171 |
| 72 |
| 65 |
| 181 |
| 3.90 |
| 1.42 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
