MLB · Starting Pitcher · Baltimore Orioles
6' 5", 230 lbs · age 28 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 0.0548 | 162 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | BAL | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BAL | 19 | 19 | 103.7 | 100 | 48 | 32 | 83 | 4.17 | 1.27 |
| 2025 | BAL | 17 | 17 | 104.3 | 67 | 20 | 26 | 98 | 1.73 | 0.89 |
| Strikeout | 19.1% | 20.1% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 15.2% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 0.1272 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 0.0545 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0055 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 0.0515 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .302 | .294 | .315 | 0.2936 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 435 | .302 | .294 | 104 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 421 | .225 | .264 | 113 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 559 | .348 | .314 | 95 |
| 2024 |
| BAL |
| 25 |
| 24 |
| 124.3 |
| 140 |
| 68 |
| 56 |
| 97 |
| 4.92 |
| 1.58 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
