MLB · Starting Pitcher · New York Mets
6' 0", 198 lbs · age 30 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 0.0683 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | NYM | 21 | 21 | 109.7 | 114 | 61 | 46 | 110 | 5.01 | 1.46 |
| 2025 | MIL | 33 | 33 | 176.7 | 124 | 53 | 66 | 204 | 2.70 | 1.08 |
| Strikeout | 22.4% | 23.2% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 13.9% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 0.1209 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 0.0573 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0051 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.0609 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .338 | .312 | .315 | 0.3125 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 490 | .338 | .312 | 98 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 719 | .268 | .279 | 107 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 721 | .303 | .297 | 100 |
| 2024 |
| MIL |
| 32 |
| 32 |
| 173.7 |
| 143 |
| 71 |
| 68 |
| 200 |
| 3.68 |
| 1.21 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
