MLB · Designated Hitter · Los Angeles Dodgers
6' 4", 210 lbs · age 32 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 13.0% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 0.0887 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | LAD | 99 | 364 | 66 | 104 | 22 | 61 | 62 | 100 | .286 |
| 2025 | LAD | 158 | 611 | 146 | 172 | 55 | 102 | 109 | 187 | .282 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | LAD | 4 | 4 | 26.0 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 1.38 | 0.85 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| Strikeout | 23.6% | 23.2% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 14.6% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 0.1255 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0515 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0059 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 0.0890 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .383 | .361 | .303 | 0.3606 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 0.0653 | 162 |
| Strikeout | 28.0% | 27.9% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
| Single | 11.2% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 0.1121 | 510 |
| Double | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0506 | 1194 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0049 | 4400 |
| Home run | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 0.0469 | 647 |
| Adjusted wOBA | .235 | .280 | .315 | 0.2798 |
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 424 | .383 | .361 | 118 |
| 2026 | pitcher | 339 | .235 | .280 | 109 |
| 2025 | batter | 705 | .415 | .408 | 137 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 187 | .247 | .279 | 107 |
| 2024 | batter | 718 | .426 | .396 | 133 |
| 2024 |
| LAD |
| 159 |
| 636 |
| 134 |
| 197 |
| 54 |
| 130 |
| 81 |
| 162 |
| .310 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
