MLB · Relief Pitcher · Detroit Tigers
6' 2", 200 lbs · age 30 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 0.0554 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | DET | 44 | 2 | 47.0 | 51 | 15 | 10 | 37 | 2.87 | 1.30 |
| 2025 | DET | 70 | 6 | 78.7 | 65 | 32 | 17 | 64 | 3.66 | 1.04 |
| Strikeout | 18.8% | 20.2% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 18.8% | 15.3% | 14.0% | 0.1345 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0513 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0054 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.0556 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .320 | .302 | .315 | 0.3023 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 197 | .320 | .302 | 101 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 307 | .286 | .287 | 104 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 351 | .219 | .259 | 115 |
| 2024 |
| DET |
| 66 |
| 9 |
| 94.3 |
| 57 |
| 23 |
| 17 |
| 77 |
| 2.19 |
| 0.78 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
