MLB · Designated Hitter · Cincinnati Reds
6' 4", 220 lbs · age 31 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 0.0716 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CIN | 75 | 218 | 23 | 54 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 64 | .248 |
| 2025 | BOS | 153 | 540 | 64 | 123 | 18 | 84 | 62 | 159 | .228 |
| Strikeout | 26.3% | 25.2% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 11.9% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 0.1138 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0523 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0043 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.0800 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .342 | .322 | .303 | 0.3220 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 243 | .342 | .322 | 106 |
| 2025 | batter | 607 | .299 | .305 | 102 |
| 2024 | batter | 564 | .335 | .338 | 114 |
| 2024 |
| TEX |
| 140 |
| 486 |
| 62 |
| 129 |
| 16 |
| 69 |
| 71 |
| 125 |
| .265 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
