MLB · Third Baseman · St. Louis Cardinals
5' 9", 185 lbs · age 32 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 14.7% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 0.0800 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | STL | 25 | 57 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 12 | .158 |
| 2025 | HOU | 112 | 352 | 33 | 85 | 11 | 44 | 27 | 88 | .241 |
| Strikeout | 17.6% | 19.6% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 5.9% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 0.1079 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0515 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0050 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0579 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .267 | .302 | .303 | 0.3023 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 68 | .267 | .302 | 99 |
| 2025 | batter | 391 | .290 | .293 | 98 |
| 2024 | batter | 301 | .322 | .318 | 107 |
| 2024 |
| BAL |
| 100 |
| 272 |
| 39 |
| 69 |
| 11 |
| 37 |
| 23 |
| 55 |
| .254 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
