MLB · Center Fielder · Toronto Blue Jays
5' 8", 207 lbs · age 30 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 0.0599 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TOR | 91 | 304 | 36 | 74 | 7 | 25 | 26 | 65 | .243 |
| 2025 | TOR | 71 | 248 | 43 | 59 | 20 | 55 | 17 | 77 | .238 |
| Strikeout | 19.6% | 19.2% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 14.5% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 0.1255 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0524 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0065 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 0.0500 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .297 | .294 | .303 | 0.2943 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 331 | .297 | .294 | 96 |
| 2025 | batter | 270 | .342 | .332 | 111 |
| 2024 | batter | 511 | .302 | .304 | 102 |
| 2024 |
| TOR |
| 136 |
| 459 |
| 73 |
| 98 |
| 18 |
| 58 |
| 48 |
| 137 |
| .214 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
