MLB · Starting Pitcher · Kansas City Royals
6' 4", 190 lbs · age 28 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 15.2% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 0.0833 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | KC | 8 | 8 | 35.3 | 27 | 19 | 23 | 45 | 4.84 | 1.42 |
| 2025 | KC | 13 | 13 | 61.7 | 53 | 32 | 20 | 98 | 4.67 | 1.18 |
| Strikeout | 29.8% | 27.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 7.9% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 0.1113 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0503 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0052 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.0708 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .349 | .321 | .315 | 0.3209 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 151 | .349 | .321 | 95 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 256 | .293 | .290 | 103 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 758 | .275 | .281 | 106 |
| 2024 |
| KC |
| 31 |
| 31 |
| 181.7 |
| 140 |
| 60 |
| 66 |
| 217 |
| 2.97 |
| 1.13 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
