MLB · Second Baseman · Chicago Cubs
5' 11", 200 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 0.0650 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CHC | 101 | 405 | 40 | 99 | 4 | 43 | 36 | 37 | .244 |
| 2025 | CHC | 156 | 599 | 89 | 178 | 7 | 61 | 39 | 49 | .297 |
| Strikeout | 8.2% | 9.6% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 15.7% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 0.1325 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0526 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0048 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.0344 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .286 | .289 | .303 | 0.2893 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 451 | .286 | .289 | 95 |
| 2025 | batter | 648 | .322 | .315 | 105 |
| 2024 | batter | 640 | .311 | .303 | 102 |
| 2024 |
| CHC |
| 151 |
| 582 |
| 86 |
| 159 |
| 7 |
| 48 |
| 44 |
| 66 |
| .273 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
