MLB · First Baseman · Minnesota Twins
6' 0", 200 lbs · age 30 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 0.0568 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | MIN | 90 | 330 | 47 | 79 | 18 | 48 | 22 | 84 | .239 |
| 2025 | MIN | 119 | 348 | 46 | 74 | 19 | 52 | 29 | 93 | .213 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | PHI | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.00 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| Strikeout | 23.5% | 22.4% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 10.9% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 0.1073 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0526 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0077 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.0855 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .326 | .310 | .303 | 0.3099 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 358 | .326 | .310 | 102 |
| 2025 | batter | 383 | .304 | .315 | 105 |
| 2024 | batter | 120 | .298 | .285 | 96 |
| 2024 |
| PHI |
| 43 |
| 111 |
| 17 |
| 24 |
| 5 |
| 18 |
| 5 |
| 29 |
| .216 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
