MLB · Starting Pitcher · Cleveland Guardians
6' 4", 219 lbs · age 27 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 0.0562 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CLE | 20 | 20 | 103.7 | 116 | 53 | 34 | 82 | 4.60 | 1.45 |
| 2025 | CLE | 23 | 23 | 132.0 | 125 | 63 | 32 | 109 | 4.30 | 1.19 |
| Strikeout | 18.1% | 19.4% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 17.2% | 15.5% | 14.0% | 0.1360 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 0.0547 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0049 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0590 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .336 | .311 | .315 | 0.3107 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 453 | .336 | .311 | 98 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 543 | .316 | .292 | 102 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 336 | .363 | .304 | 98 |
| 2024 |
| ARI |
| 20 |
| 13 |
| 77.0 |
| 92 |
| 57 |
| 17 |
| 64 |
| 6.66 |
| 1.42 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
