MLB · Designated Hitter · St. Louis Cardinals
5' 11", 220 lbs · age 26 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 16.0% | 15.1% | 9.8% | 0.1041 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | STL | 102 | 376 | 63 | 90 | 11 | 41 | 51 | 78 | .239 |
| 2025 | STL | 107 | 388 | 54 | 110 | 19 | 66 | 43 | 84 | .284 |
| Strikeout | 17.3% | 17.2% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 14.2% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 0.1240 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 0.0502 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0048 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 0.0522 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .326 | .335 | .303 | 0.3353 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 451 | .326 | .335 | 110 |
| 2025 | batter | 450 | .361 | .359 | 120 |
| 2024 | batter | 258 | .349 | .324 | 109 |
| 2024 |
| STL |
| 72 |
| 229 |
| 37 |
| 69 |
| 5 |
| 27 |
| 25 |
| 53 |
| .301 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
