MLB · Third Baseman · Washington Nationals
6' 1", 225 lbs · age 25 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 12.7% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 0.0842 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | WSH | 86 | 281 | 48 | 72 | 17 | 48 | 37 | 62 | .256 |
| 2025 | CHW | 90 | 240 | 26 | 56 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 63 | .233 |
| Strikeout | 19.3% | 18.8% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 11.5% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 0.1106 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0525 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0052 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 0.0888 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .366 | .341 | .303 | 0.3413 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 322 | .366 | .341 | 112 |
| 2025 | batter | 265 | .275 | .290 | 97 |
| 2024 | batter | 131 | .254 | .289 | 97 |
| 2024 |
| TB |
| 38 |
| 122 |
| 10 |
| 29 |
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 6 |
| 30 |
| .238 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
