MLB · Starting Pitcher · Boston Red Sox
6' 6", 245 lbs · age 27 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 0.0692 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BOS | 6 | 6 | 30.0 | 33 | 21 | 11 | 37 | 6.30 | 1.47 |
| 2025 | BOS | 32 | 32 | 205.3 | 165 | 59 | 46 | 255 | 2.59 | 1.03 |
| Strikeout | 27.0% | 25.7% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 13.9% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 0.1227 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 0.0546 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0052 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.0597 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .352 | .311 | .315 | 0.3115 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 137 | .352 | .311 | 98 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 812 | .268 | .270 | 111 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 595 | .278 | .277 | 107 |
| 2024 |
| CHW |
| 31 |
| 31 |
| 146.0 |
| 123 |
| 58 |
| 33 |
| 209 |
| 3.58 |
| 1.07 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
